By Victor Mlunde
Having started out humbly as a zoology professor, Jonathan ‘accidentally’ switched to politics to become Deputy then full Governor of Balyesa State, then Vice-President who would eventually inherit the throne in 2010 after the death of President Y’aradua. Jonathan the ‘peace maker’
Former Nigerian president, Goodluck Jonathan (right) congratulates his February elections challenger and successor, General Muhammadu Buhari (left) after announcement of results.
Although the job of Nigerian president in itself is a great achievement, we would somehow agree that Jonathan’s footprints would not necessarily be visible in his presidency of the most populous and arguably the most strongest economy in Africa rather in setting a rare precedent in the continent that an incumbent desperately seeking extension of his rule can indeed concede defeat, relinquish power peacefully and become a “Godfather” of democracy.
Switching to his current mandate as the Commonwealth Secretariat Chief Observer to Tanzania general elections, I am of an opinion that Jonathan’s role is pivotal and should not be confined to a mere observer who would just oversee the process and report back to NEC rather his role should extend to utilizing his diplomatic genius to counsel main candidates to accept outcome of polls.
Despite having distinct political and democratic history, as non-industrial countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria and Tanzania have indeed a lot to compare in that they both pursue multiparty political systems.
Ethno-religious politics
As is the rest of Africa, Nigeria is renowned for its trademark Muslim North- Christian South political culture that have polarized a country, also known for its ethnic divide. Indeed, Jonathan’s and Buhari’s divided electorate is a typical example.
In Tanzania, we have recently witnessed some key presidential aspirants seeking votes on religious and ethnic lines too, hoping to benefit from a polarized electorate.
Security factor
We are all witnesses to the security tension brought about by the Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria around the time of elections, reaching its climax with abduction of 200 Chibok girls, pushing the polls for further six weeks. In Tanzania, security tension around Sunday elections has already been elevated by quest to guard votes outside 200-meter parameter from polling stations, a catalyst for clashes between/among party supporters and/ or security forces.
Moreover, there is a lingering security uncertainty in various potential hotspots which are traditionally violent for instance Arusha, Mbeya - Tunduma, Mwanza and Zanzibar, to mention a few.
Oil and gas factor
Like Nigeria, Tanzania elections are set on top of a stiff but covert battle for access to ‘gas billions’ in Southern Tanzania. While Nigerian elections were seen as a rare opportunity for any elected leader to have an upper hand in production sharing agreements with international oil companies (IOCs), Tanzania elections suggest that the new leader will be influential in the newly found gas wealth, set to start flowing in the second half of his first 5-year tenure (2019 or so). Foreseeing this glory, already some local business tycoons and business networks are siding with some candidates to ensure they win State House and state coffers by hook or crook.
Untested electoral technologies - BVR
Faced with a challenge of democratizing electoral systems, both Nigeria and Tanzania used Biometric Voters Register in an attempt to make voters roll more inclusive, transparent and credible despite being . If Nigeria could make it, I believe the best efforts employed by the National Electoral Commission (NEC) in adding almost 3 Million voters in the register deserves an applause, although much has to be done to ensure electoral bodies become more independent, ending ‘unhealthy’ perception that they protect the incumbent regimes.
Pre-electoral pledge for peaceful elections
There is a lot to learn from former Nigerian president Abdisalam Aboubakar’s approach in forging a pre-election deal which compelled Jonathan and Buhari to accept outcome of elections. Whether that was a gentleman agreement or a legally binding one, at least it shows it can really work. Similarly, presidential contenders in Tanzania should sign such deals in future so as to impose a social and moral guilt on them.
NEC has played a more or less similar role at campaign level by engaging all parties to signing an MoU guaranteeing respect for electoral regulations and code of conduct. To some extent that has worked although key to it is for opposition parties to ensure they uphold democratic standards to the end by urging supporters to leave polling stations after voting.
How important is Jonathan to Tanzania
In his address to members of diplomatic corps earlier in the week, Jonathan praised Tanzania for not only upholding peace and tranquility, but also for being the symbol of democracy and stability, often exporting the rare commodity to the rest of the continent.
Indeed, his words should be an eye opener in seeing that as Tanzanians, we should not be complacent about peace but prove the world wrong in that we can emerge from these complex situations united.
Way forward
Commonwealth is no stranger to brokering peace deals in the region, Zanzibar Muafaka Accord in early 2000s is the best example. As an exemplary African statesman, a diplomatic genius and now Head of Commonwealth Election Observation Mission, Goodluck Jonathan should employ preventive measures to counsel our presidential contenders especially opposition parties to accept the outcome of elections even if it means conceding defeat. Urging supporters to go back home after voting will help avoid a catalyst for violence, prevent a potential trigger for a post-election conflict and help a seemingly divided country to rise above and move on.
Mungu ibariki Afrika, Mungu ibariki Tanzania.
Victor Mlunde is a Dar es Salaam - based Governance and Development Consultant with expertise in Elections, Democracy, Energy Governance and Conflict Resolution in the Great Lakes region. He can be easily reached through +255 714 289428 or vicmlunde@yahoo.com